As summer wraps up, many poultry buyers are still feeling the tailwinds of a strong grilling season. Demand for fresh and frozen chicken, turkey cuts, and value-added products often stays elevated through September, thanks to lingering warm weather and Labor Day promotions. But as the month progresses, attention begins to shift—subtly but significantly—toward holiday planning, especially for Thanksgiving.
While consumers may not yet be thinking about stuffing recipes, those in procurement and distribution are already watching turkey availability closely. September is a key inflection point in the turkey market. The USDA’s Cold Storage Report consistently shows that frozen whole turkey inventories peak in late summer—typically August—after months of steady production and storage. These stocks are built intentionally to prepare for the sharp drawdown that occurs in the lead-up to Thanksgiving.
By September, the drawdown begins. Cold storage volumes decline rapidly over the next 60 to 75 days as product is released into wholesale and retail channels to meet growing demand.
September is the time to:
- Review current inventory positions and lock in contracts if not already in place. Pricing can start to move as product tightens.
- Anticipate logistics lead times, especially for frozen product that may need to be staged for just-in-time delivery later in the season.
- Coordinate with retail or foodservice customers who are beginning to plan promotions and menu offerings. Demand signals often start here.
- Monitor USDA reports for weekly movement and cold storage levels to get a sense of market tightening or changes in regional availability.
While some seasonal patterns are consistent, each year brings its own set of variables—bird weights, freezer space, labor availability, transportation challenges, and customer demand curves. Buyers who take a proactive approach in September are far more likely to secure product and pricing that aligns with their Q4 goals.
Keep that momentum going,
Your Friends at Poultry Direct
